Understanding The "Market": Why Experts Are Excited And New Investors Are Nervous ~ By Chris Anderson, Ph.D.

January 11, 2006

Are you confused about where the real estate market is going and what you will do in 2006?  Well join the club since many, many people are in your situation. I will tell you that many savvy investors are getting very excited BECAUSE the market is changing.

In this week's article, we are going to conduct a little exercise to clarify what is really meant by "The Market".  Suppose that you read the below article in the New York Times.  How do you react?  As we go forward, let's compare your reaction to this information with the reaction of savvy investors who have "been there, done that"

Beach Front Condo Project Bankrupts Local Investors January 11, 2006, Pogomo Beach, FL (APE News) The struggles of a new, 220 condo unit show the continuation of the real estate bubble. When local real estate agent Daffy Duck was interviewed, he said that "some condo values have dropped over 40% in the period since July 2005.  The last sale we had was at a high value of $850,000 but now you would be lucky to get $600,000."  APE News has learned that one investor is now having to make mortgage payments of up to $5,000/mo on each of their 3 units.  In turn, this is forcing them into bankruptcy.   Upon further analysis....

Before you read the rest of this article, I encourage to step back and jot down your knee jerk reaction to this news.  Why?  Because you will undoubtedly see such headlines in the future.  If you can sort of your feelings about these types of stories, then you will be miles ahead of most investors and determine how to best profit.  People typically have two reactions to this article:

• Reaction 1 :  Articles like this indicate that the overall real estate market is getting soft.

• Reaction 2 :  In flat, soft, or declining real estate markets, it is very risky to invest.

Unfortunately both reactions will limit their ability to be a creative, profitable investor.

Let's see how a more experienced investor might think.  First, this article would tell the investor that the market for $850,000 condos in Pogomo Beach Florida has probably dried up.  On the surface, it would appear that both the rental and sales demand are low for THAT particular product in THAT particular area.  We will use this knowledge to our advantage in a minute. 

Second, the investor knows that this news tells them nothing about OTHER real estate products in Pogomo Beach.  For example, the demand for affordable, $250,000, off beach townhomes could be blistering hot in Pogomo Beach.  For that matter, who knows what is happening in the single family home market.  THESE SUBMARKETS CAN ACT COMPLETELY DIFFERENT THAN THE $850,000 CONDO MARKET.

Let me illustrate this point in real life.  While writing this article, I am flying to Las Vegas to look at a development that is a condo conversion.  Before I left, I have seen several news pieces about high end, on the strip condo developments terminating in Vegas; clearly not great news for high end condo developments.    

On the other hand, we know that Las Vegas area still faces an issue with an ever increasing population, is land locked, and has a shortage of affordable housing.  I also know that because of our group size at GetPreConstructionDeals.com, we are getting offered an interesting opportunity to get in first.  Time will tell if this development is appropriate for our web site, but we know without seeing it that this "submarket" of Las Vegas has considerable potential; all the while the popular press has a dim view of the Vegas real estate market.

Another insight that the sophisticated investor knows is that huge returns can be made in soft or down real estate markets; i.e., they understand that all markets do not always go up but there is money to be made regardless of what the markets are doing.  To understand this concept, let's go back to Pogomo Beach and see what we can do.

Suppose your believe as an investor is demand for beach front condo's will be extremely strong.  Yes, there may be a hiccup for 12-24 months but the fact remains there is little beach front left and a lot of baby boomers who want to own it ----- someday.  When looking at the above news article, maybe the investor decides that if purchased for $485,000, then the Pogomo Beach condo would be quite attractive and likely to generate a nice return in time.  But even at that price, maybe they are not ready to rush out and acquire a unit.  Next, maybe the investor understands that some people bought into this project very cheap at preconstruction prices and might be quite happy to get out with some profits rather than having to make mortgage payments month after month, deal with tenants, have to furnish the unit, etc.  Quite possibly the investor might be interested in purchasing a unit if they can get the right price - let's say maybe $395,000.  If somebody excepts that offer, then great, they have just bought themselves a great investment for a real estate product in a soft market.  Yes, they are going to have to rent this out for a while to let the market catch back up to them but they know they have just purchased a great asset for a tremendous price. Hopefully by using this fictitious article as a training example, you have gotten a better understanding of your believes about how to handle 2006.  In addition, with this background, maybe the next time somebody asks you "what the real estate market will be for [fill in the blank]", you can give them a highly accurate answer: some people will make a boatload of money and some people will lose money .  While this will not satisfy them, you know that it will be true in almost every active real estate market in the country. About The Author Dr. Chris Anderson is the founder of one of the largest preconstruction groups on the internet today and is referenced in many venues including the New York Times and USA Today. Get access to wholesale property investments today. Note:  This article may be copied for use on other websites under the following conditions: It is not altered in any way. The about the author is included The http://www.GetPreConstructionDeals.com hyperlink remains intact.